New Mexico Urban Homesteader

Hello, I am A 50 Something, Prepper ;-}; former 60's Flower Child, don't believe in taxpayer subsidized special interest groups (political parties), DO believe in the Constitution and Bill of Rights (1st 10). Long time Independent & Informed Voter. Lover of the outdoors and firm believer that History Teaches - if only we will listen!

(No longer Urban or in NM. Now Rural in the mountains of Maine.)

This blog was started at the request of some dear friends that wish to become Preppers.

“No man who is not willing to help himself has any right to apply to his friends, or to the gods.”

Demosthenes (384–322 BC, Greek statesman and orator of ancient Athens)


Sunday, March 31, 2013

Building a Needs Based Preparedness Plan – Mobility Issues






Okie-Dokie  We have identified what crises we are concerned about, both consciously and unconsciously.  We have also created a prioritized list of goods, knowledge and skills needed to survive those crises and what needs we have yet to acquire.  Yet we still aren’t quite ready to hash out a plan. Yeppers, we still need to address some other potential ‘dings’ to our survivability quotient.

One of the ‘dings’ I see most often is mobility.  People have it in their head that they are going to shelter in place and so they don’t need any go-bags, e-kits, caches, or planned alternate routes and the like.  They couldn’t be more wrong if they tried.  The reason this mindset is wrong should stick out like a sore thumb – big time!

Don’t believe me?  Just take stroll down memory lane and past history.  How many personal and large crises, emergencies and disasters have occurred when one was ready for it?  How many of these past crises, other than say hurricanes, did we know was coming on such’n’such a date at blah-blah time?  Not many and most certainly less than half.

Yes siree, most of the time a crisis will hit unexpectedly while we are out and about, doing the things we do as we live our lives.  If sheltering is needed to survive this crisis, we need to get home to do that, and that my friends - requires mobility.

This is the first post-crisis place that puts humans in danger.  The unprepared will stand around waiting for someone to come along and help them or waste precious time trying to figure out how to get home.  Some of the unprepared may also be uninformed and pick a spur of the moment alternate route that leads them into even greater dangers.  The possibilities are endless when it comes to the actions of the unprepared.

Depending on what crises are on your list, your vehicles and usual routes could be available, and most people will think along those lines.  Yet several of those pesky human characteristics holds us back from actually thinking and planning about what to do in case our usual modes of transportation and routes are not available immediately following the crisis.

The next reality check is that as individuals and civilian groups (even groups up to say 10,000 people) we lack the benefits of a large infrastructure entity that would lend itself to a viable back-up plan to this mobility issue. 

We lack the monies, the human-power and the supplies, as well as everything else that goes with those much needed things.  Then add in that any crisis that can take out transportation vehicles is likely to take out electrical items too.  

On top of that, in most metropolitan areas (urban and suburban); when the electrical grid fails, the devices that keep the pressure up in water and gas lines fail too, not to mention gas pumps, ATM's and communication towers.  Most of these areas do not have back-up generators and if they do, they will run out of fuel in 3 days or less, most in less than 24 hours.

This means our preparedness plan should be based on the worst possible scenario for getting to our home and or retreat so we can shelter in place.  To do this our plan needs to assume that our usual modes of transportation are unavailable and our usual routes of travel are unavailable - we are on foot, with what we have with us when the crisis hits.   If our plan is geared to the worst case scenario here, our backup plans are no brainers.

Think about it.  If your vehicle is working, but your usual route is unavailable, no problem your plan has been based on backup routes.  If transportation is not available, but your usual route is, no problem, your plan has been based on no transportation.  You don’t even have to think about what to do because your plan was based on the worst case scenario to begin with – ie: the backup plan is a given as it is closer to the every day, non-crisis  scenario we live in.

Bottom line:  Mobility WILL be an issue, even if it is just to get home to shelter in place.  Failure to plan for this MAY cause injury or death.

I call this step to collecting the information needed to formulate a viable plan the Mobility Exercise

In my book this is the hardest part of the information gathering requirements to any good preparedness plan.  Yet once done it has one of the greatest impacts to boosting our survivability quotient.


This mobility exercise will require a few tools:

  • A map of your town and surrounding area
  • Acetate/plastic sheets (like the ones used on those old overhead projectors)
  • Grease pencils or dry erase markers (enough colors for each member of your household)
  • Paper clips

Make a schedule or list of everything each member of your household usually does.  Like school, work, sports, shopping, entertainment, doctor’s appointments and the like.  This is your Who, What, When, Where Schedule.  Don’t worry if you don’t always know the exact particulars to each aspect. 

See the example of the Doe family schedule, which consists of two adults, two children and a german shepherd dog @ http://www.scribd.com/doc/133240676/Building-a-Needs-Based-Preparedness-Plan-%E2%80%93-Mobility-Issues

As you can see coming up with the ‘schedule’ is going to take a bit of thought.  For some things you may not know exactly where you will be or when and with whom.  At least list the usual ‘haunts’ or ‘hang-outs’ and which members of your household this applies to on this schedule.

Tip:  It is a good idea to collect addresses and phone numbers to these various activity locations and keep this list in the ‘Communication’ section of your Important Documentation Book.

The next thing to do is to put a big ‘X’ where your home is. 
Most of us plan to shelter in place and the best place is our own homes.  After all that is where all of our stuff is right?!

Then mark all these activity locations on our map, using a different color marker and or different symbol for each household member.  Now take a good long look at this map.

Consider how long it will take you to walk from any of these locations to your home?  What is the overall environment (weather, road blocks, etc) likely to be immediately following the crisis?


Next review your Moderated Crisis List.  Are there any crises that may render your house off limits?  Just so you know there is at least one that will – FIRE and depending on what is on your list, there may be other crises that will do this too.

This means we need to consider, at minimum, one other secondary retreat.   Again, depending on what crises are on your list, and if you lean towards the preparedness rule of redundancy, you may need to select more than one secondary retreat.  Just make sure this secondary retreat is outside the scope of involvement of any crisis on your list and is not a public shelter or evac center.

These ‘retreats’ don’t have to a cabin in the woods, an RV that runs on bio-diesel or the like.  Consider family and friends, even if they themselves are not Preppers.   

For example, let’s say that your home has a chance of being flooded by a nearby stream.  You can ask a non-Prepper friend or relative if your family can go to them for at least the first 2 weeks after the flood hits and if you can store some stuff in their garage or attic for your family to use.  Then if some other larger scope of involvement, longer duration crisis hits, they won’t care if you are there, especially if your family arrives prepared.  Fact is they will most likely be grateful and latch onto you because you appear to know what you are doing.

If this other friend or relative is a Prepper, well asking is a breeze.  Just say ‘can you be our secondary retreat and may we store some stuff here; in exchange we’ll do the same for you’.


The other thing to consider when looking at your map is if you think you can walk it, on foot, with no help, from any of the activity locations to your home in 3 days or less, even if you have a minor injury.   If you do not think you can do that, then consider if you have any friends , relatives or ‘safe’ spot between the activity location and your home that you can use as a temporary ‘safe house’ or rest stop.

Mark these secondary retreats, safe houses and rest stops on your map.  Use a symbol or color that tells you what they are (rest stop, secondary retreat 1, secondary retreat 2 and so on).
 
Up to now was probably rather difficult, however the most trying part is next.  It’s time to paperclip those acetate/plastic sheets over your map. 


Pick at least 2 alternate routes from each activity location, to each possible retreat.  This may sound easy to some, yet we must remember we are doing ‘worst case scenario’ here– we are on foot with only what we had with us when the crisis hit and the usual does not apply.

While you are selecting these alternate routes, consider the terrain, each household members physical capabilities and what is along these routes.  After all in a worst case scenario mode, we may not be able to use the actual road or sidewalk itself.  Are there any places along the way that will be ‘safe’ (protection from the elements or people) to stop and rest, and leave a secret signal for another household member?  (Now you know why I said to use the acetate/plastic sheets so you can erase and try again.)

Once you have finalized these alternate routes, mark them on the actual map and then replace the acetate/plastic sheets for the next step.

This step tends to cause people to roll their eyes, throw their hands up in the air and yell ‘I quit’!  Just hear me out before you do that.  

We now need to pick at least 2 locations along these alternate and primary routes that can be used as rest and/or secret communication stops. 

Keep in mind protection from the elements and or people, and what is along the route that one can carve or scratch a symbol on.  Like say a park bench, tree trunk, rock, outdoor newspaper/vending machine, underpass, wall and the like. 

Also keep in mind that you may have routes that cross each other, merge or come within a block or two of each other, even if they are from different activity locations going to different retreats. 

This allows you to utilize one secret communication/rest stop that serves more than one route.
 
See, you can stop rolling your eyes now ;-}

  
If you haven’t already done so, select a symbol for each household member.  Keep it simple so that it is easy to freehand or scratch onto something. 
   
Tip:  Many people then use lines under the symbol to signify to which alternate retreat they are heading towards; one line for secondary retreat 1, two lines for secondary retreat 2 and so forth. You house or primary retreat will have no lines.
  
These symbols can be anything from hearts, diamonds, clubs and spades or trail signs, to ones of your own invention. They only need to be simple to draw, carve or scratch onto some surface.

If you have young children, infants, toddlers or a family member with some kind of mobility disability or health condition consider this:

These individuals usually do not travel anywhere without someone else who has no mobility disability or is old enough to grasp what is being discussed in our preparedness plan.
    
When it comes time to do a practice drill (there should be at least one a year), make it easy on yourself by borrowing or renting a bicycle, wheelchair or motor scooter chair.  This way you are not risking anyone’s health or taxing their patience.  It has been found that just being familiar with the route will reduce the stress from any crisis by half, no matter the age of the individual.  Increase familiarity and reduce stress and you increase one’s survivability quotient 10 fold.

Most children will not be frightened by this kind of activity.  In fact studies have shown that they tend to be more secure and will often want to help in any way they can.

Keeping all household members in the loop and having them participate, even the very young, shows they are being ‘taken care of’ and protected against all kinds of known’s and unknowns.

Ok, I have stressed several times that our worst case scenario is on foot with what we have with us at the time the crisis struck and without the usual routes or modes of transportation.  So to increase our survivability quotient it pays to have a few things with us that we otherwise would not carry.  This is where go-bags come into play.
 
Grab-bags, go-bags, e-kits, 72 hour bags and bug-out bags come in all sizes and shapes, have all kinds of catchy names, and range from 3-10 day survivability.  For this discussion I am going to center on the 3-day or 72 hour bag, as I am assuming that most people will only need this emergency bag to get them safely from where ever they are when the crisis hits to home and can usually do that, on foot, in 3-days or less. 
 
No matter what, these bags primary purpose is to provide the basics to life (human or pet) for, in this case, 72 hours or 3 days.  The basics in the first 72 hours after a crisis hits are:


•    Air
•    Food (nutrition)
•    Water (container & purification tools)
•    Protection from the elements (space blanket, fire, heat, cooling)
•    First Aid/Medication
•    DSS (Defense, Safety, Security)


Go-bags should be as light as possible.  I believe the average fit person can easily carry up to one third of their body weight.  However, I do know that as we age, we usually can carry less and less.  When in my prime I could carry a 60-75 lb bag, today I can’t top 30 lbs. and do best around 20 lbs.

This means anything we put in the bag should be small, compact, light-weight and as multi-functional as possible.  For example the basics are:



  • Some clear plastic, a space blanket and a few lawn & leaf bags can give you a poncho, water distillation and keep you warm or cool. Get a better quality space blanket to have more functionality as well as multiple use.
  • Food bars, Coast Guard certified, are smaller and lighter than MRE’s, freeze dried or dehydrated meals in a packet and produce less trash to deal with.  Remember this is only for 72 hours and not the long haul.
  • A water bottle.  I recommend the lightweight stainless steel kind, wrapped in a bandana or tape (to reduce the noise factor) over pre-bottled water as they are more multi-functional and can take more of a beating.
  • At least two types of water purification.  Like a small and light backpackers filter straw and tablets.  Or you can carry some charcoal in a zip lock bag and use it with a bandana to strain or filter water.
  • A Swiss Army knife or Leatherman type tool and one fixed blade knife.
  • A combat saw (the small wire type not the chain saw type)
  • Small first aid kit and some super glue (super glue can be used in place of stitches for many wounds). Gauze, antibiotic ointment and medical tape work better than band-aids.  An elastic bandage and pain reliever, fever reducer, plus some multi vitamins.
  • Signal mirror
  • Whistle
  • Compass
  • Water/wind proof matches, lighter, magnifying glass, steel wool, 9 volt battery and maybe some ‘instant’ or ‘backpackers’ tinder.
  • Fishing line, sinker and hooks.
  • Duct tape
  • About 25-50 feet of light weight rope like parachute cord.
  • Extra zip loc bags, about 3 feet of heavy duty aluminum foil and plastic wrap
  • Flashlight, water proof, with extra batteries and a glow stick or two.
  • 2 pairs heavy duty wool socks.  These can be used as gloves, hot pads as well as just plain old socks.
  • About $10-$20 dollars worth of quarters
  • Can of bear spray (great non-lethal self-defense weapon, stronger and cheaper than pepper spray)
  • Something spiritual for peace and motivation
  • Depending on your list you may want some kind of breathing apparatus (respirator, gas mask, etc) or decontamination suit

A pet will need food and water too. 

  • If this is a dog or cat; be aware that they will need more water if you use dry pet food over moist.
  • Some moist pet food is now sold in Mylar plastic pouches, which although expensive, is great for pet go-bag use.
  • Go to the pet or sporting goods store where they sell the fabric/Mylar roll up bowls for pets and keep this in the pet’s go-bag.
  • If the dog is large enough you can get a dog backpack so the dog can carry its own go-bag.
  • For smaller pets you may need a crate and a folding, lightweight luggage dolly with bungie cord

Remember this bag is only to get you from where ever you are when the crisis hits to home in about 3 days or less.  It is not intended to allow you to live off of indefinitely.

There are three types of these 72 hour go-bags:

•    Individual – One for each family member and or pet that is included in your plan.  This is where you can personalize it so if a family member has say asthma, you can include an extra RX and inhaler.
•    Vehicle – One for each vehicle. This should account for the maximum number of people and pets that can be in the vehicle at any given time.  Here you can use the chain saw type Combat hand saw. This is not the vehicle’s emergency kit with fix-a-flat and universal fan belt.
•    Household – Realistically this is more of a duffle bag than a go-bag as it should account for the average number of people and pets that can be in your house at any given time and may need to vacate the house quickly.  Here you can use the chain saw type Combat hand saw. This bag should also include your Emergency Documentation Book.


Remember the Doe family?  They have an aunt and uncle with their dog that visits once a year and the two children each have a friend that stays over once a month.  This means that their household go-bag will be for 4 adults, 4 teenagers and 2 dogs. We can’t account for everyone that might be at our house when a crisis hits, but we sure can account for the most likely number of people that could be in our house.

Get in the habit of always having a go-bag with you. 

•    If you are a business person there are high end briefcase/laptop case type backpacks that have plenty of room for your go-bag essentials too. 
•    Ladies, those extra large, over the shoulder satchel style purses are still the rage.  Just put a couple of purse organizer pouches in it – one for your purse stuff and one for your go-bag stuff. 
•    Diaper bags now come in backpack format and have plenty of room for the additional go-bag stuff. 
•    Younger children can use kiddie suitcases or backpacks (some of these backpacks come with wheels and handles too)
•    There is a high end backpack that in the day was called a Kangaroo Pack.  It actually consisted of three different packs.  A small one that can be removed and worn around the waist, a medium sized one that could be removed and used like a day pack and a larger one,  that the other two attached to, which was more like your standard backpack and could be used by itself or with the others attached. In the 70’s this cost about $80 and was more than worth the price.
•    There are backpacks for medium to large dogs, so the animal can carry its own go-bag.
•    For smaller pets, a crate stored with a small backpack of pet goodies and a lightweight, portable, folding luggage dolly.  Store the pets go-bag and the luggage dolly with the crate.


Avoid book bags and fashion backpacks as they are often made of inferior materials and will fall apart under stressful use very quickly.

There are some very small, super minimal ‘survival’ kits that can fit in a purse or a glove box.  Some homemade ones fit in Altoid tins.  Basically, there really is absolutely no reason not to have something with you at all times.

Note: For more detailed information on these various go-bags the following two documents go together.  One explains the differences (What is the Difference Between All the E-Kits and Bags and What Do I Need?  http://www.scribd.com/doc/50951224/What-is-the-Difference-Between-All-the-E-Kits-Bags-and-What-Do-I-Need) and the other is a spreadsheet comparing the various go-bag, camping and backpacking checklists (Preparedness Bags Checklist Compare http://www.scribd.com/doc/41973071/Preparedness-Bags-Checklist-Compare).  
   
A quick word about Water 
   
Water is essential to human life.  We cannot live long without it. 
 

1 Gallon of Water =  a little over 8 pounds

Now think about this: The average water needs for humans is about 1 gallon per day and one gallon weighs about 8 pounds.  When it comes to mobility, most of us humans cannot carry three days worth of water with us all time, as that is about 3 gallons and 24 pounds of water per person!

Water Needs

  • General Rule with hygiene:  MINIMUM is 1 Gallon per person per day
  • Human General Average:  MINIMUM of 2 liters or 8 cups per day to maintain efficiency;  In general one quart of water is needed daily for every 50 pounds of body weight; Children require about 4-6 cups of fluid per day on average.


Factors that Determine the Water Needs for adults, children and pets:


  • Age  
  • Weight - The heavier a human or pet is, usually means they need more water to sustain themselves.
  • Activity - The less active one is; the less water they can get away with.
  • Health  - A female that is pregnant or nursing needs more water than one that is not.
  • Dry pet food will require more water for the pet than wet pet food.


Water in and of itself never really goes bad.  It can get polluted, poisoned and dirty, Yes - go bad, No.

Tip: If you are storing water in large containers it can develop a ‘stale’ or ‘stagnant’ taste.  This is easily fixed by putting the water in some kind of clear container and placing it in the sun for a few hours.
  
Then there was this law that was passed back in the 90’s and went into effect in the early 2000’s that requires all plastic containers, holding liquid for human consumption and of 2 liters or less, to be made with the new bio-degradable plastic.

BYU did a study on this new plastic when used for pre-bottled water.  What they discovered is:

  • In about 1 to 1 ½ years the plastic degraded enough to taint the taste of the water.  Not poison it, just taint the flavor, and that one could not ‘refresh’ the taste out by any means. 
  • After 2-3 years the bottles degraded enough that over 50% of them were leaking. 

Kinda explains those expiration dates on the pre-bottled water doesn’t it?
This bio-degradable plastic is also much weaker than re-usable plastic containers.  It splits, cracks and punctures easily.  Yes, re-usable plastic water bottles are stronger than the bio-degradable pre-filled ones are, but these too can handle less heat or cold and become brittle and break quicker than metal.

It is for these reasons that I recommend the stainless steel water bottles over pre-bottled or reusable plastic bottles, especially for any long term storage of water in say, a rarely used go-bag.


Let’s face it – if we want to accomplish anything worthwhile, we can’t pay someone else to do it for us; we can’t just buy it - we need to DO IT ourselves


Next time we will discuss the last piece of information collection needed to form our Needs Based Preparedness Plan.  Can you guess what it is?

TNT

Read on for detailed examples @ http://www.scribd.com/doc/133240676/Building-a-Needs-Based-Preparedness-Plan-%E2%80%93-Mobility-Issues




“A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences.” - Proverbs 22:3


Tuesday, March 26, 2013

What’s A Needs Based Plan?





“Determination and perseverance move the world; thinking that others will do it for you is a sure way to fail.”
Marva Collins
(1936-present American Educator)



Why do preparedness plans fail?

Good question with multiple answers.  The biggest traps are:
 


  • Sticking ones head in the ground (a lack of reality/too much faith in other entities)
  • Lack of commitment (anything worthwhile in life takes time, effort, energy and money)
  • Trying to have your SHTF life be exactly like your ‘now’ life
  • Forgetting to take care of your body first (air, water, food, protection from the elements (shelter & clothing, heating/cooling) and maybe RX’s if you have an illness you will die from without the meds) Remember if the body is dead or dying we can’t take care of our spiritual or mental needs, yet alone our defense, safety and security needs, so take care of the physical needs first.
  • Thinking one can go it alone or that nothing bad will happen at all
  • Over estimating what one can do or live without, while underestimating what one can’t do or live without
  • Confusing Needs vs wants, desires (and conveniences)
  • Trying to help everyone and everything
  • Avoiding the ‘bad’ and ‘sad’ or depressing stuff
  • Attempting to purchase preparedness (stockpiling, techno gadgets, etc)
  • Thinking a household or small group can plan and respond just like large infrastructure entities
  • Having a plan that is ‘best case scenario’ based rather than ‘worst case scenario’ based (leads to inadequate and sometimes deadly backup plans)
  • Putting too much weight on science and education and not enough on human 6th senses, intuition and irrational fears (or vice versa)
  • The plan is crisis (disaster/hazard/emergency) oriented rather than needs based


Last month we discussed what the odds of various things occurring are and how to define and how to prioritize the crises you are concerned about – without falling into any of the above traps. (http://nmurbanhomesteader.blogspot.com/2013/02/what-are-odds.html)  This time around we will discuss what we need in order to survive the various crises on our list and how to prioritize these needs.

This is really kinda simple – list what you feel you will need to survive the crises on your Moderated Crisis List, for their projected scope of involvement and duration. 


What are Needs?

That’s all the goods (consumables & reusable’s), all the knowledge (intellectual know-how) and all the skills (physical application of knowledge in utilizing the goods) you feel you will need for each of the crises on your list.  It doesn’t make any difference if you already posses this need or not, or if this need is even obtainable or not – list it

This is a Per Crisis Needs List; 1 needs list for each crisis on your Moderated Crisis Priority List.


Don’t forget things like:



As you are creating these lists you will see that quite a few ‘needs’ repeat themselves. 

When this happens:  Flag them and keep a count of how many times it repeats by placing ‘tic’ marks next to it on the Per Crisis Needs list that item is first listed on.

Once you are done, clean the lists up a bit.


  • Place the ‘needs’ that repeat themselves first, in the order of the number of times they repeat.
  • Prioritize any singular listed ‘needs’ and list them after the repeats.  (Be sure the repeats are flagged and counted on each successive per crisis needs list).


At this point you may wish to have one master Needs List rather than the Per Crisis Needs Lists.  No problem …

  • Start with your # 1 priority Per Crisis Needs List, through to the last priority Per Criss Needs List and record all the repeats, ranked by the number of times they repeat.
  • Go back to your # 1 priority Per Crisis Needs List and list the singular needs, on to # 2 and so forth.

You now have a master Needs List that is prioritized.

 

Once this is done go back and highlight any ‘needs’ you already possess.

Use a different color highlighter for items that need to be used and replaced due to their shelf lives (even if you already have the quantity that you desire), like food, medications, oils, fuel, etc.  

Note:  Where food and medications are concerned, shelf life means the time frame before the item loses its nutritional value or potentancy. (See Shelf Life Information on Lots of Things (Must download in excel format to see all tabs) http://www.scribd.com/doc/42690147/Shelf-Life-Information-on-Lots-of-Things)

Then on another sheet of paper list all the ‘needs’ you don’t have yet.  Again start with the # 1 Priority Needs List, working to the lowest priority needs list.

This is your Acquire List that you will use to budget time and monies for.

Remember that all these ‘needs’ have a process and procedure behind them, even if it is just a word or two.

At this point we should have the following:


  • Prioritized Crisis Possibility List (feelings, gut instincts & irrational fears)
  • Prioritized Crisis Probability List (what science and education say the odds are & any occurrences to date)
  • Prioritized Moderated Crisis List (balance of the above)
  • Prioritized Per Crisis Needs List (and an optional Master Crisis Needs List)
  • Prioritized Needs to Acquire List (all the goods, knowledge and skills you are lacking or need to replace)


As a side note:

For those of you who may have a family member that just doesn’t see the ‘why for all’ in preparedness, ask them to zero in on the 4 types crises that most of us are likely to see:  Fire, Crime, Illness/Injury, Personal finance.  Above all, keep them involved, even if you have to play the ‘if you love me, you’ll do this’ card.


“Condemnation without investigation is the height of ignorance.”
Albert Einstein

For the person in your household that may have what the rest of you consider a rather ‘wacked out’ crisis they want on the list.  Go ahead and address it.  It is here with the Per Crisis Needs Lists that everyone will see that most of the needs (if not all) to this crisis matches the needs to the other more ‘reasonable’ crises.

“Every step we take towards making the State the caretaker of our lives, by that much we move toward making the State our master.”"
Dwight D. Eisenhower

All of these tasks to formulating a crisis based preparedness plan are geared to avoid those pesky human characteristics that usually trip us up. 

For Example: for some bizarre reason we humans will remember things better if we physically write with a pen or pencil rather than type or dictate them. Just as we remember more if we actually do something while being instructed rather than reading or watching it being done. Taking advantage of this is to use plain old paper and pencil to form your lists.  For the ‘clean up’ to these lists you can then use modern technology like a computer. 

Whatever your preparedness plan, the final should be in writing or hardcopy - even if you think the government is going to go ‘Hitler’ on you.  Keep this hardcopy in your Important Documentation Book. 

Your hardcopy plan does NOT have to be detailed on your supplies.  For instance for Firearms, list what purpose you want those firearms to do:  hunting, defense, barter and trade.  You are not being detailed in what kinds of animals you plan to hunt for food, so no data mining ‘alarms’ will go off on any particular caliber and or model.

Case in Point:  Most of the terrorists (domestic and foreign) have been caught because of some kind of electronic communications and or talking about details in public.  Warrants were then issued to search homes and businesses.  The hardcopy did not get these people in trouble, their techno communications and mouths did!

That completes the first big hurdle to creating a Needs Based Preparedness Plan vs a crisis based preparedness plan and avoiding most of those human characteristics traps.

Next time we will address the dreaded Mobility Issues ;-}

TNT


(For visual examples of what is explained in this post see http://www.scribd.com/doc/132546291/What%E2%80%99s-A-Needs-Based-Plan)

Side Bar:

Data Mining and surveillance is a common occurrence throughout most of the world and the US is no exception. 

To name a few of the things our government, et al does to ‘keep us safe’ and ‘give us better products’:


  • FBI Fusion Centers have computer programs that eavesdrop on all unencrypted phone and digital communications, from actual audio conversations to comments on blog posts and what internet sites we visit or receive email from , not to mention our own emails.
  • We have our pictures taken constantly when we enter stores and purchase goods
  • We are seen in stills or motion video at public transportation centers and stops
  • Our spending habits are tracked via our debit and credit cards, our checks and ‘rewards’ cards
  • All cell phones since 2002 can be tracked via GPS unless the battery is removed, even ‘burn phones’ can be tracked if on for more than 2 minutes at a time.
  • Major roadways and toll booths are videoed constantly
  • Many cell phone and digital cameras ‘hide’ GPS coordinates in pictures so if you post them on the web anyone can get the GPS coordinates, not to mention an unscrupulous digital photo/video developer
  • Prescriptions are tracked
  • If we get any government assistance from anywhere including Social Security and disability checks, to our private retirement checks, are tracked
  • Vehicle (land, air or sea) are tracked via their VIN or Call/Registration numbers and when we purchase or get them serviced or file a flight plan
  • Since 1986 all public schools track students via their Social Security numbers
  • US drone usage that is supposed to track poachers and illegal border crossings are also videoing US citizens
  • State and Federal Income Tax returns are tracked
  • Since shortly after 9/11 all USPS mail has been x-rayed and radiated and any ‘suspicious’ letter/package is noted in a database
  • Vaccinations given at any age are tracked
  • US Passports and passport cards are tracked, along with all border crossings
  • Club Memberships and Magazine Subscriptions are tracked
  • Cable and Satellite TV viewing usage is tracked




Tuesday, February 26, 2013

What Are the Odds?

We are bombarded daily with all kinds of possible crisis’s, emergencies, disasters and hazards.  Yet what do the ‘experts’ of science and education say the odds of these things are?

First we have to remember that science and education have been wrong.  The world is not flat, the Earth is not the center of the universe, blood transfusing is better than bloodletting and ‘100 year floods’ have occurred 2 or more times in a 20 year time frame.  

We humans can’t solely rely on our gut instincts and sixth senses either.  Our guts can be wrong and we tend to have irrational fears that taint our ‘accuracy’ or perception of the odds.

Not to mention that our very humanness means we cannot just ignore one over the other, even if our rational mind or science indicates we should.  Whenever we do, we usually end up drastically lowering our survivability quotient.


Now add that we humans hate thinking about anything remotely sad or bad.  We will subconsciously avoid talking, thinking or researching these ‘sad’ and ‘bad’ subjects and as a result these are the things we usually get blindsided by.

The most common of these ‘don’t want to think about it’ (or ‘that can’t happen’) crisis are:
  • Some kind of FIRE:  We hate thinking that we may have a house fire or a fire at work or school or while at the theater.  Yet historical fire events show and the ‘experts’ state, that the odds of us being affected by or experiencing a fire of some kind is greater than any of the larger catastrophic type crises we hear and worry about, and even some of the natural type crises too.
  • Some kind of CRIME:  This can take the form of a carjacking, home invasion while you are home or not home, a robbery while at the grocery store, a mugging, identify theft and so forth.  Crime is on the rise around the world and the U.S. is no exception.
  • Some kind of severe ILLNESS or INJURY to you or a loved one:  This can be anything from falling off your front porch and breaking a leg, a heart attack, auto accident or some other illness or injury.
  • Some kind of PERSONAL FINANCIAL crisis:  This can be from a poor investment, losing a law suit or getting laid off and the like.

Lastly, add in that we can’t rule out plain old Luck either!

This means that logically we need to balance these factors against one another and come up with ‘odds’ that ‘best match’ for our mental quirks, beliefs and understanding.

How?  Well, there is a simple three step process to do this.  I call it the Possibility, Probability and Moderated Crisis lists.

First list all the crises that you are concerned about.  Don’t think about this; just list them as they come to mind.  Usually the order in which you list these potential crises is what priority you are placing them at - It is the subconscious priority list of what you are concerned about.  This is your Possibility Priority List.  Be sure to address those 4 “can’t think about it” type crises, even if they are listed last as an afterthought.

Next do some research on what the ‘experts’ say the odds of these things occurring are and what any historical events of this kind have taken place to date.  Doing this puts your concerns into perspective and is your Probability Priority List.  These are the exact same crises as your Possibility List, only prioritized based on the ‘experts’ and their odds.

This will also entail doing a home hazard hunt and a review (or discussion with your physician) of your general health habits and condition. Going to the FBI Uniform Crime Report and checking on the crimes in your area (how often and what kind of crime), as well as checking with your local, county or state fire department for information on the kinds of fires they respond to and their frequency.

The tables discussed latter in this article, will assist you in this research.

The third step is to moderate these two lists into a priority list that you can live with, consciously and subconsciously, or what I call the Moderated Priority List.

There is only one rule to this moderation.  Say a crisis is # 2 on your Possibility list and # 7 on your Probability list.  This means you must list it somewhere between # 3 and # 6 on your Moderated List.  Conversely, if something is # 7 on your Possibility List and # 2 on your Probability List, you must list it somewhere between # 3 and # 6 on your Moderated List.

Above all, keep all of this in perspective.  The truth is that 99.99% of the disasters we are likely to encounter will NOT involve a widespread, government/world altering event or mega disaster.  Instead they will take the form of lost jobs, accidents, medical issues, fire, crime, etc., followed by the usual severe weather and natural planetary issues; for example:  flooding, earthquakes, land/mud slides, meteorite and the like.

Perception and Reality are more often than not, 2 different animals!

Fact is that every place has its dangers; we just have to assess them. And it’s probably reasonable to assume that no matter where we live to 75+ years of age, we’ll probably see at least one local event like an earthquake, hurricane, or flooding and many people will see several. Not to mention that most of us will experience some kind of medical issue or ‘accident’ type injury.  Think about this - the United States has some of the fewest massive crises type events, with some of the lowest injury and mortality counts than most other countries.  In fact most ‘tier 1’ or ‘western’ cultures experience fewer massive crises than those countries that are not ‘tier 1’.

There have been many ‘Preparedness’ and ‘Risk Factor’ surveys and reports over the decades; some rather scientific (and quantifiable) and some not so much, that quantify the above statement.  The results of some of the more recent surveys can be found @ http://www.scribd.com/doc/126965157/What-Are-the-Odds

Situational Awareness is the # 1 asset in a crisis in any situation; it is one of the greatest variables to our survivability quotient that is within our realm of control.  One cannot just learn it, one must DO IT to be good at it!

To help you keep your Situational Awareness high, here are some links to assist you with staying aware of what is happening around you.  The more aware you are the less risk to you.


There are 3 'Odds" tables in the document What Are the Odds? @ http://www.scribd.com/doc/126965157/What-Are-the-Odds that contain the odds of occurrence (that I could find) that resulted in injury and or death; from alien invasion to various work & play incidents like dying from a drinking straw (perspective, remember perspective)

One table is in % per average Lifetime (75 years) or Century.  The other is the “1 in” odds per average Lifetime (75 years) or Century.  Both of these tables are sorted by the most likely to occur to the least likely to occur.

The third table is general information on the occurrences to date, of most of these various events.

Fourth, for all of us ‘visual’ type people is a bunch of charts or graphics arranged kinda by date, on all kinds of things from risks, crime rates and trust, to cost of various past events, taxes, mortality causes and general economy; what state gets the most government funds, Federal Court districts, as well as time zones and the like.

Fifth, are descriptions and links to 4 terrific sites that will keep you informed on all kinds of ‘threats’ from natural to man made causes.  These sites provide up the hour, real time data.

At the end of all of this is a table with links to all kinds of related information; including an Excel Workbook that has state by state rankings (2010) on the various characteristics Preppers look for (just in case you are looking to move or purchase a retreat).

I know all these tables makes for a rather long document.  Yet, I have never known research to be quick or easy.  I’m helping you out here by sharing the results of all of my research to date.  So no matter how boring you find this, please remember that this is to assist you with the research part of your Possibility, Probability and Moderated Crisis Lists.  These tables will also be beneficial in putting all kinds of ‘concerns’ into perspective.

I hope this helps and Good Luck  ;-}

TNT


Monday, February 25, 2013

Alert ! Firearms Legislation For New Mexico

“Both the oligarch and Tyrant mistrust the people,
and therefore deprive them of arms.”
Aristotle



U.S. Constitution – Bill of Rights

In the beginning there was the ‘shot heard round the world’ on April 19, 1775 at a bridge between Lexington and Concord where the British were out to confiscate colonial citizens of their firearms.  Our country was founded on the principle that each and every one of us have 'inalienable rights' given to us by God the Creator and they cannot be taken away from us by ANY human-made government. 

All of our founding documents have one common theme:  The freedom of choice within the constraints of the 10 Commandments.   Because of this I will defend any US citizen's right to NOT own a firearm, as strongly as I will defend any US citizen's right TO own a firearm.  I will defend this inalienable right of personal choice with my last breath.

There are several versions of the text of the Second Amendment, each with slight capitalization and punctuation differences, found in the official documents surrounding the adoption of the Bill of Rights.  One version was passed by the Congress, while another is found in the copies distributed to the States and then ratified by them.

2nd Amendment - Right To Bear Arms as ratified by the States and authenticated by Thomas Jefferson, Secretary of State:

“A well regulated militia being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed.”

The original hand-written copy of the Bill of Rights, approved by the House and Senate, was prepared by scribe William Lambert and resides in the National Archives.  The Second Amendment is the only amendment to the Constitution which states a purpose.

“If cowardly and dishonorable men sometimes shoot unarmed men with army pistols or guns, the evil must be prevented by the penitentiary and gallows, and not by a general deprivation of a constitutional privilege.”
Arkansas Supreme Court, 1878

The following is from http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Article_II,_New_Mexico_Constitution

New Mexico Constitution - Article II, Section 6

Right To Bear Arms

(Article II of the New Mexico Constitution is entitled Bill of Rights and consists of 24 sections.)

Section 6

“No law shall abridge the right of the citizen to keep and bear arms for security and defense, for lawful hunting and recreational use and for other lawful purposes, but nothing herein shall be held to permit the carrying of concealed weapons. No municipality or county shall regulate, in any way, an incident of the right to keep and bear arms.”

(As amended November 2, 1971 and November 2, 1986.)

"Gun control? It's the best thing you can do for crooks and gangsters. I want you to have nothing. If I'm a bad guy, I'm always gonna have a gun. Safety locks? You pull the trigger with a lock on, and I'll pull the trigger. We'll see who wins."
Sammy "The Bull" Gravano, Mafia assassin,
Vanity Fair interview, September, 1999, p. 165


There are currently 6 bills before the NM State Legislature – 3 of which demand the attention of anyone who is a holder of the Constitution of the United States and New Mexico.

HB 77 FIREARMS TRANSFER ACT  Sponsor: Miguel P. Garcia
(background checks required for all private sales, including gun shows)
Passed House – Current Location:  Senate Public Affairs Committee   



HB 114 PROHIBIT ENFORCEMENT OF FEDERAL GUN LAWS Sponsor: Nora Espinoza
(just as it sounds, preserve & protect the 2nd Amendment as written)
Current Location:  House Consumer & Public Affairs Committee (tabled?
  

HB 402 RESTRICT ASSAULT WEAPONS & LARGE MAGAZINES Sponsor: Stephen Easley
(just as it sounds, max mag size 10 rounds)
Current Location:  House Consumer & Public Affairs Committee  
 


 These next three seem to be just for 'special' folks to protect themselves ;-{

HB 137 CONCEALED GUNS IN LIQUOR ESTABLISHMENTS Sponsor: Zachary J. Cook
Current Location:  House Judiciary Committee   


HB 454 JUDGES' CONCEALED HANDGUN LICENSES Sponsor: Thomas A. Anderson
Current Location:  House Consumer & Public Affairs Committee   

SB 230 SCHOOL EMPLOYEE CONCEALED HANDGUNS Sponsor: Sue Wilson Beffort
Current Location:  Senate Education Committee  
 

“A system of licensing and registration is the perfect device to deny gun ownership to the bourgeoisie.”
Vladimir Ilyich Lenin


Contact the Governor and your legislators today !

Contact the Governor   http://www.governor.state.nm.us/Contact_the_Governor.aspx
Find Your Legislator http://www.nmlegis.gov/lcs/leg.aspx?T=S
Find Your District  http://www.nmlegis.gov/lcs/districts.aspx

“The most foolish mistake we could possibly make would be to allow the subject races to possess arms. History shows that all conquerors who have allowed their subject races to carry arms have prepared their own downfall by so doing. Indeed, I would go so far as to say that the supply of arms to the underdogs is a sine qua non for the overthrow of any sovereignty.”
Adolf Hitler


New Mexico State Legislature Committees involved with these bills

House CONSUMER & PUBLIC AFFAIRS
Tuesdays & Thursdays - 1:30 p.m. - Room 315
Representative,    Eliseo Lee Alcon     Chair
Representative,    Patricia Roybal Caballero Vice Chair
Representative,    Thomas A. Anderson Member
Representative,    Gail Chasey     Member
Representative,    Jason C. Harper Member


House JUDICIARY
Mondays, Wednesdays & Fridays - 1:30 p.m. - Room 309
Representative,    Gail Chasey     Chair
Representative,    Georgene Louis     Vice Chair
Representative,    Eliseo Lee Alcon Member
Representative,    Cathrynn N. Brown Member
Representative,    Zachary J. Cook Member
Representative,    Brian F. Egolf, Jr. Member
Representative,    Kelly K. Fajardo Member
Representative,    Miguel P. Garcia Member
Representative,    Nate Gentry Member
Representative,    Emily Kane Member
Representative,    Antonio "Moe" Maestas Member
Representative,    Terry H. McMillan Member
Representative,    Paul A. Pacheco Member
Representative,    William "Bill" R. Rehm     Member
Representative,    Patricia Roybal Caballero Member
Representative,    Mimi Stewart Member


Senate  PUBLIC AFFAIRS
Tuesday, Thursday & Friday - 2:30 p.m. (Room 321)
Senator, Gerald Ortiz y Pino Chair
Senator, Bill B. O'Neill Vice Chair
Senator, Jacob R. Candelaria Member
Senator, Ron Griggs Member
Senator, Daniel A. Ivey-Soto Member
Senator, Timothy M. Keller Member
Senator, Gay G. Kernan     Member
Senator, Craig W. Brandt Ranking Member


Senate  EDUCATION
Monday, Wednesday & Friday - 8:00 a.m. (Room 311)
Senator, John M. Sapien Chair
Senator, William P. Soules Vice Chair
Senator, Craig W. Brandt Member
Senator, Lee S. Cotter     Member
Senator, Bill B. O'Neill Member
Senator, Michael Padilla Member
Senator, John Pinto Member
Senator, Pat Woods Member
Senator, Gay G. Kernan Ranking Member


“The measures adopted to restore public order are: First of all, the elimination of the so-called subversive elements .... They were elements of disorder and subversion. On the morrow of each conflict I gave the categorical order to confiscate the largest possible number of weapons of every sort and kind. This confiscation, which continues with the utmost energy, has given satisfactory results.”
Benito Mussolini


THANK YOU New Mexico Gun Owners Association ;-}

“Germans who wish to use firearms should join the S.S. or the S.A.. ordinary citizens don't need guns, as their having guns doesn't serve the state.”
Heinrich Himmler



New Mexico Gun Owners Association is a no compromise gun rights lobbying and activist group. They primarily work on gun rights issues in New Mexico, and will be providing a way for New Mexicans to be more proactive in defending their Constitutional rights.
Their Mission:  To protect Constitutional Rights of New Mexicans to keep and bear arms as written in Article 2 Sec 6 of the New Mexico Constitution.


“All political power comes from the barrel of a gun.
The communist party must command all the guns, that way,
no guns can ever be used to command the party.”
Mao Tse Tung

"If we could save just one life ..."

Well my firearm has saved 3 lives, dosn't this count? Two men broke into our home and I locked myself with my then two toddlers in the master bedroom bath with the phone (this was before cell phones).  These criminals broke two steel doors and two solid wood doors in order to enter our bathroom.  All the time I was on the phone with 911.  Because I owned a firearm, knew how to use and did not hesitate to use it, my children and I are alive today! Just as an FYI, it took the police 9 1/2 minutes to arrive from the time I called 911 - which they did a full 2 minutes AFTER I was forced to discharge my firearm!

Now they’re tryin’ to take my guns away
And that would be just fine
If you take ‘em away from the criminals first
I’d gladly give you mine
Charlie Daniels Band, A Few More Rednecks


"We have given you a Republic, if you can keep it."  
Benjamin Franklin

TNT